Will Bagnaia bag the title this weekend? Or will Fabio do something Fabulous!

MotoGP 2022 – Round 20 – Valencia
The Finale

23 points split challenger Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) from defending champ Fabio Quartararo (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP), and for the crowd watching on that makes it an easy enough equation: the only thing Quartararo can do is win. If he doesn’t, Bagnaia need not even finish, such is his advantage.

In the red corner, Bagnaia has a stunning seven wins and has overcome a deficit of 91 points to sit 23 points clear heading into the weekend finale. Bagnaia has broken more than a few records and stands to become the first Ducati rider to take the crown in 15 years – something that would also see the Bologna factory complete the Triple Crown of Constructors’, Teams’ and Riders’ titles.

Bagnaia won at Valencia last year on a historic day for Ducati too as they locked out the podium, so the track will not be an unwelcome venue for the decider. But that was then, and this is now – with history beckoning with open arms. No longer the chaser, Bagnaia is now the rider in the hot seat.

In the blue corner, Quartararo’s year has largely been a study in consistency. Few mistakes, some impressive victories and, until late on, the sole Yamaha scoring constructor points every weekend speak to an incredible achievement of a season.

A tough Thai GP and then another nil points in Australia seemed to see the tide turn, but El Diablo wasn’t done. As Sepang staged the first match point for his opponent, Quartararo pulled out a much-needed podium for his final stand, and stand he did as the fight rolls on.

Valencia would likely not be his venue of choice, but for Yamaha it’s been a solid one… so with zero pressure now the weight of expectation has shifted to Bagnaia, can Quartararo come out swinging?

The decider, however, does not exist in a vacuum. It exists on a grid of the fastest riders and machinery in the world, all of whom have their own targets to hit and glory to chase. Some of whom also have loyalties.

With history on the line for Ducati, the message is, as a bare minimum: do not get anywhere close to being the reason for a last-minute heartbreak. And that message goes out to a third of the grid: Jack Miller (Ducati Lenovo Team), Enea Bastianini (Gresini Racing MotoGP), Johann Zarco (Prima Pramac Racing), Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing), Marco Bezzecchi (Mooney VR46 Racing Team), Luca Marini (Mooney VR46 Racing Team) and Fabio Di Giannantonio (Gresini Racing MotoGP).

Some, like Zarco, have already said they’ve made sure to keep risk under control. Some, like Martin, have said it’s not much to do with him, for which read, most probably, “I’ll make up my own mind”. Miller has already been a team and constructor hero, as well as a team-mate pep talker to get Bagnaia feeling confident in the wet. Bastianini, meanwhile, remains staring at the camera with the hint of a smile and an eyebrow raised, leaving many wondering how the Italian will take on the decider.

Enea Bastianini

“This will be my last race with team Gresini and I will try to celebrate it the best way possible. It will surely be a complex race, with many competitive riders… We’re on a roll and we know our potential, so we’ll try to do well and finish in the world championship top-three.”

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Ducati, for their part, have been vocal about having sent out no team or constructor orders before this point in the battle. Bagnaia has also stated he wants to win on track, not by order from above.

For Quartararo, meanwhile, the allies have been a little further back this season. Team-mate Franco Morbidelli (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP) showed a step forward at Sepang in terms of pace though, and he has known glory at the track before. But what about the rest of the field?

Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing) is now out of the fight and looking for much more as the paddock returns to Europe, as is team-mate Maverick Viñales.

Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) isn’t even mathematically out the fight for a place in the top five overall this season, such is the South African’s record of Sunday heroics and consistency.

There are plenty more names with little to lose in engaging full attack mode, too – as well as those facing their own last tangos in 2022. Alex Rins (Team Suzuki Ecstar) and team-mate Joan Mir, the latter a winner at Valencia, will want to leave the Hamamatsu factory on a high.

Cal Crutchlow (WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP) will be stepping down from competition once again, as rookie team-mate Darryn Binder also prepares for a last dance on the way to Moto2.

After this weekend Alex Marquez (LCR Honda Castrol) heads from Honda to try a Ducati, and Pol Espargaro (Repsol Honda Team) switches back to Austrian machinery. Remy Gardner (Tech3 KTM Factory Racing) sets sail for WorldSBK as team-mate Raul Fernandez switches to Aprilia, and Miguel Oliveira (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) kisses goodbye to KTM. Miller does the same to Ducati, too, and it speaks well of the Australian that that’s not become a headline ahead of such a pivotal weekend for Borgo Panigale.

Last but not least, we didn’t forget him. Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda Team)… It’s a requirement given the number 93’s incredible record. And it may have been a long, tough time of late to get that glory back, but Marquez already has a pole and a podium since his return – a return where time is on his side as every new race and week adds a little more strength to his recovery. Can the eight-time World Champion steal the headlines this weekend? It would be quite a gauntlet to throw down ahead of 2023, where Marquez has his eyes set on more than just the occasional prize.

Marc Marquez

“The last race in a long and very different kind of year. We’ve been learning every weekend since we came back and that’s the objective again for this race. I think Valencia will suit our bike better than in Sepang, so hopefully we can be closer to the front. It’s a track where I have had good results here in the past and you get some close races because of the layout. No matter what I think it will be an exciting weekend for the fans with both the Moto2 and MotoGP titles on the line.”

MotoGP Championship Points Standings

Moto2

At the time, the crash in Australia for Augusto Fernandez (Red Bull KTM Ajo) felt pivotal. But fast forward to the final lap at Sepang and Ai Ogura (Idemitsu Honda Team Asia) definitely upstaged the Spaniard in ways he will likely still be ruing. And so we arrive into the final round with Fernandez’ name pencilled on the trophy instead, with the number 37 9.5 points clear with 25 still up for grabs.

Both have had incredible seasons and would be deserving of the crown, but that’s not how it will work once the lights go out.  There can only be one, and here’s how each can get it done:

FERNANDEZ

• He finishes on the podium
• He finishes P4 or P5, and Ogura doesn’t win
• He finishes P6, P7, P8 or P9, and Ogura doesn’t finish better than P3
• He finishes P10, P11 or P12, and Ogura doesn’t finish on the podium
• He finishes P13 or P14, and Ogura doesn’t finish better than P5
• He finishes P15, and Ogura doesn’t finish better than P6
• He fails to score any points, and Ogura doesn’t finish better than P7

OGURA

• He wins and Fernandez doesn’t finish on the podium
• He finishes P2 and Fernandez doesn’t finish better than P6
• He finishes P3 and Fernandez doesn’t finish better than P10
• He finishes P4 and Fernandez doesn’t finish better than P13
• He finishes P5 and Fernandez doesn’t finish better than P15
• He finishes P6 and Fernandez fails to score any points

Add in the likes of Alonso Lopez (Beta Tools Speed Up), on the hunt to keep his lead in the Rookie of the Year standings, wrap up that title and win another race, vs Pedro Acosta (Red Bull KTM Ajo) looking to fight back, Aron Canet (Flexbox HP 40) searching for that maiden intermediate class win, Jake Dixon (Inde GASGAS Aspar Team) the same and Tony Arbolino (Elf Marc VDS Racing Team) on a roll…

Jake Dixon

“I’m looking forward to going to my second home, Valencia. I love it there. I can’t wait to get there and put on a good show for the team, for the sponsors and for all the fans. I will continue with what we have been doing so far to make a good end of the season and I will try to get on the podium, although getting the victory would be incredible.”

Moto2 Championship Points Standings

Moto3

Izan Guevara (Valresa GASGAS Aspar Team) has one last chance to sign of 2022 with a win ahead of new adventures next season, but the fight for second is primed to try and get in his way.

Sergio Garcia (Valresa GASGAS Aspar Team) leads it as it stands, and the Circuit Ricardo Tormo is something of a special track for the number 11. From junior categories to the World Championship, it’s a place Garcia has created some serious glory.

Still, Dennis Foggia (Leopard Racing) is in touching distance to try and make a final stand, whereas Ayumu Sasaki (Sterilgarda Husqvarna Max) more depends on what happens around him to see where his final position is for the year. The Japanese rider has been the most consistent, alongside Guevara, for some time, however – and anything can happen in Moto3.

Young Aussie Joel Kelso will be looking to end the season on a high and might sneak into the final championship top 20 if he has a good weekend.

Moto3 Championship Points Standings

2022 Valencia MotoGP Time Schedule
(AEDT)